Book review: SAME AS EVER
A Guide to What Never Changes
Genres:
- Decision-Making
- Problem Solving
The number of pages:
240 pages
Year the book was published:
First edition published 2023
Book rating:
3/5
Review posted on:
15.06.2025
Table of contents of the book:
Introduction: The Little Laws of Life
1. Hanging by a Thread: If you know where we’ve been, you realize we have no idea where we’re going.
2. Risk Is What You Don’t See: We are very good at predicting the future, except for the surprises — which tend to be all that matter.
3. Expectations and Reality: The first rule of happiness is low expectations.
4. Wild Minds: People who think about the world in unique ways you like also think about the world in unique ways you won’t like.
5. Wild Numbers: People don’t want accuracy. They want certainty.
6. Best Story Wins: Stories are always more powerful than statistics.
7. Does Not Compute: The world is driven by forces that cannot be measured.
8. Calm Plants the Seeds of Crazy: Crazy doesn’t mean broken. Crazy is normal; beyond the point of crazy is normal.
9. Too Much, Too Soon, Too Fast: A good idea on steroids quickly becomes a terrible idea.
10. When the Magic Happens: Stress focuses your attention in ways that good times can’t.
11. Overnight Tragedies and Long – Term Miracles: Good news comes from compounding, which always takes time, but bad news comes from a loss in confidence or a catastrophic error that can occur in a blink of an eye.
12. Tiny and Magnificent: When little things compound into extraordinary things.
13. Elation and Despair: Progress requires optimism and pessimism to coexist.
14. Casualties of Perfection: There is a huge advantage to being a little imperfect.
15. It’s Supposed to Be Hard: Everything worth pursuing comes with a little pain. The trick is not minding that it hurts.
16. Keep Running: Most competitive advantages eventually die.
17. The Wonders of the Future: It always feels like we’re falling behind, and it’s easy to discount the potential of new technology.
18. Harder Than It Looks and Not as Fun as It Seems: “The grass is always greener on the side that’s fertilized with bullshit.”
19. Incentives: The Most Powerful Force in the World: When the incentives are crazy, the behavior is crazy. People can be led to justify and defend nearly
My thoughts about the book:
I picked up Same as Ever by Morgan Housel for two main reasons. First, I thoroughly enjoyed his previous book, The Psychology of Money, which offered insightful and thought-provoking perspectives. Second, the premise of Same as Eve, understanding the timeless lessons that remain constant through history, strikes me as both fascinating and valuable. In a world where many overlook or dismiss the wisdom of those who came before us, either out of arrogance or ignorance, learning from what doesn’t change can offer a real advantage. I believe there is great power in recognizing and applying enduring truths that most people tend to ignore.
The book is composed of 23 standalone chapters, each concise and easy to read. Much like The Psychology of Money, Housel uses a blend of storytelling and personal reflection to explore each topic. However, he mentions that many of these chapters originated from his blog at Collaborative Fund, which was a drawback for me. If I wanted to read extended blog posts, I’d visit the site, not turn to a published book. This reminded me of Seth Godin’s writing style, which never quite resonated with me, and still doesn’t.
Some chapters are engaging and well-crafted, offering genuine insight, while others feel underdeveloped or repetitive. At times, it seems the author simply repurposed a blog post without expanding on the idea or providing deeper context. The result is a sense of incompleteness, as if the core message is there but not fully explored. In my view, the book would have been stronger with fewer, more refined chapters combining those with overlapping themes and enriching them with more in-depth, real-world examples.
That said, the book carries a powerful message and that is, in a world obsessed with change, we often overlook the enduring patterns of human behavior. These overlooked constants can reveal meaningful opportunities if we take the time to notice them. While change grabs our attention, it’s often the things that stay the same that hold the greatest wisdom. And because they aren’t flashy or novel, we tend to ignore them. If nothing else, Same as Ever serves as a valuable reminder for me to pay closer attention to what remains consistent, the quiet truths that persist, even as everything else evolves. For that alone, it was worth reading.
A short summary of the book:
In Same As Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes, Morgan Housel explores timeless truths about human behavior such as our patterns, blind spots, and emotional tendencies that consistently repeat throughout history. It’s as if we fail to learn from the past, leaving us “doomed” to repeat the same mistakes as those before us.
Introduction – The Little Laws of Life
In the introduction, Housel presents the book’s central idea which is understanding what doesn’t change in a constantly changing world. He supports this with anecdotes, like Warren Buffett asking someone what the best-selling candy bar was in 1962—and today. The answer is Snickers. He also references Jeff Bezos, who often gets asked what will change in the next 10 years, but not what won’t. The message is powerful, the unchanging aspects of life are often the most useful for shaping the future. Your job is to find them.
Chapter 1 – Hanging By a Thread
Housel discusses how decisions are often made without understanding why and how luck and randomness influence history. He illustrates that no event is truly isolated and that every occurrence has precursors. Even if events appear random, human reactions to them tend to follow familiar patterns. The chapter includes several stories about seemingly random events that had massive ripple effects, and a personal story about an avalanche that killed two of his friends in a tragedy he narrowly avoided by chance.
Chapter 2 – Risk Is What You Don’t See
This chapter focuses on unseen dangers. Housel recounts the story of an astronaut Victor Prather, who drowned despite a successful mission because no one anticipated water entering his suit at landing in the ocean because he opened his helmet. He also uses Houdini’s death as an example. The fatal punch that Houdini killed him wasn’t the hardest he’d received, but it was unexpected. The takeaway is that what you don’t anticipate often poses the greatest risk.
Chapter 3 – Expectations and Reality
Happiness, Housel argues, is largely a function of expectations. In the past, expectations were shaped by neighbors and communities. Today, social media has distorted that comparison base, making people feel inadequate. He contrasts this with life in 1950s America, where similar lifestyles and expectations made people more content even though they had far less than we do today.
Chapter 4 – Wild Mind
Those who achieve extraordinary outcomes often think differently from the majority. To stand out, you can’t behave like everyone else. Housel highlights figures like John Boyd, Elon Musk, Isaac Newton, and Eliud Kipchoge to demonstrate how unconventional thinking often leads to greatness.
Chapter 5 – Wild Numbers
People crave certainty more than they trust statistics. We tend to believe confident experts over probabilistic data. Housel explains that because bad news spreads faster and feels more impactful, especially in a hyper-connected world, we often feel like only negative things are happening. But this perception is skewed.
Chapter 6 – Best Story Wins
Compelling narratives often matter more than facts. Housel uses Yuval Noah Harari’s Sapiens as an examplea as it didn’t offer new information, but its storytelling captivated millions. When issues are complex, stories act as leverage and they influence people more effectively than raw data.
Chapter 7 – Does Not Compute
Humans strive to make everything logical, but the universe doesn’t always obey logic. Housel shares examples like the Vietnam War, WWII’s Battle of the Bulge, and the GameStop stock saga. These events made little logical sense, yet they happened, often due to stories and beliefs that overrode rational thinking.
Chapter 8 – Calm Plants the Seeds of Crazy
Stability often breeds complacency, which can lead to chaos. Housel outlines the “Seinfeld mentality” which is, you only know you’re at the peak once you’re already declining. He presents a cyclical pattern of fear and greed, illustrating how perception shifts lead to cycles of boom and bust. A striking example is California’s 2017 vegetation surge which was followed by devastating wildfires in 2018.
Chapter 9 – Too Much, Too Soon, Too Fast
Things need time to grow. Rushing results may backfire. Warren Buffett’s quote “You can’t produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant” illustrates this point. Housel uses investing to show that long-term patience yields better outcomes than trying to time the markets.
Chapter 10 – When the Magic Happens
Innovation often arises in response to pressure, not comfort. World War II pushed the U.S. to develop many breakthroughs. Still, there’s a limit. Too much stress can cripple rather than inspire. The magic lies in the balance.
Chapter 11 – Overnight Tragedies and Long-Term Miracles
Good news unfolds slowly and quietly, bad news is immediate and loud. Deaths avoided, diseases prevented, and tragedies averted rarely make headlines. Housel illustrates this with stats like a 70% decline in heart disease deaths since the 1950s about 1.5% per year, but no one celebrates it. On the other hand, accidents, deaths and other bad news take the spot light.
Chapter 12 – Tiny and Magnificent
Major outcomes often hinge on tiny, seemingly insignificant events. Housel points to COVID-19, the Tenerife airplane crash, and compounding interest to show how small factors can shape massive outcomes.
Chapter 13 – Elation and Despair
Balancing optimism and pessimism is essential. Pessimism grabs attention, but optimism builds the future. Prisoners of war who survived were those who had hope but tempered with realism. Bill Gates ran Microsoft with optimism, but always kept enough cash for 12 months of expenses just in case.
Chapter 14 – Casualties of Perfection
Striving for perfection can backfire. Housel argues that “good enough” often beats “perfect” because perfection exposes you to risk elsewhere. Nature and history reward resilience and sufficiency over flawlessness.
Chapter 15 – It’s Supposed to Be Hard
Life comes with overhead. Frustration, hassle, and imperfection are unavoidable. Housel shares the story of the Donner Party, who took a shortcut that ended in disaster. Those who succeed accept imperfection rather than fight it.
Chapter 16 – Keep Running
Success isn’t static. Competitive advantages decay if you don’t evolve. Companies that rested on past success eventually fell behind. Staying relevant means continuing to adapt, not coasting on what worked before. An interesting thought from this chapter is that the only thing harder than gaining a competitive edge is not losing an advantage when you have one.
Chapter 17 – The Wonders of the Future
Small innovations can compound into unforeseen revolutions. Housel shares the origins of the internet and Facebook to illustrate that the greatest value of new technology often comes from unexpected applications by people with different skill sets.
Chapter 18 – Harder Than It Looks and Not as Fun as It Seems
We doubt ourselves because we see our own flaws, yet view others as flawless. Housel warns that this skewed perception can limit potential. Everyone struggles. Stop advertising your problems, solve them, and show yourself some grace.
Chapter 19 – Incentives: The Most Powerful Force in the World
Incentives shape behavior more than reason or morality. Housel shares stories of people who changed careers based on financial rewards and highlights how social incentives push people to adopt views they may not fully agree with. Incentives can sustain irrational trends longer than logic allows.
Chapter 20 – Now You Get It
Experience teaches more than theory. We might think and train to act in a certain way when something arises, but will we really act in the same way as we think we will? Soldiers may train endlessly, but combat reveals who can really perform. Investors may say “buy when others are fearful,” but few act on it when their portfolio drops 30%. Knowing and doing are not the same.
Chapter 21 – Time Horizons
Long-term thinking is powerful, but it doesn’t exempt you from short-term realities.It requires filtering noise and staying flexible. Your strategy can evolve, but stay committed to the broader vision.
Chapter 22 – Trying Too Hard
Complexity can create the illusion of control, while simplicity often feels naive. Housel urges readers to resist overcomplication. Simple, clear thinking is often more accurate, though it may be harder to trust.
Chapter 23 – Wounds Heal, Scars Last
People disagree not because of facts, but experiences. Beliefs are shaped by life, not information. Most forget past mistakes until a deeply scarring event rewires behavior. Those who lived through the Great Depression or WWII see the world differently than those who didn’t.
Final Section – Questions
Housel ends without giving final advice. Instead, he leaves the reader with questions meant to provoke personal reflection. To find out what those questions are, you’ll need to read the book.
My notes from the book:
- Change captures our attention because it's surprising and exciting. But the behaviors that never change are history's most powerful lessons.
- An irony of studying history is that we often know exactly how a story ends, but we have no idea where it began.
- Every current event - big or small - has parents, grandparents, great-grandparents, siblings, and cousins. Ignoring that family tree can muddy your understanding of events, giving a false impression of why things happened, how long they might last, and under what circumstances they might occur again. Viewing events in isolation, without an appreciation of their long roots, helps explain everything from why forecasting is hard to why politics is nasty.
- Predicting what the world will look like fifty years from now is impossible. But predicting that people will still respond to greed, fear, opportunity, exploitation, risk, uncertainty, tribal affiliations, and social persuasion in the same way is a bet I'd take. - Morgan Housel
- Risk is what's left over after you think you've thought of everything. - Carl Richards
- Your happiness depends on your expectations more than anything else.
- There is no such thing as objective wealth - everything is relative, and mostly relative to those around you. It's the path of least resistance to determining what life owes you and what you should expect. Everyone does it. Subconsciously or not, everyone looks around and says, "What do other people like me have? What do they do? Because that's what I should have and do as well."
- A common trait of human behavior is the burning desire for certainty despite living in an uncertain and probabilistic world.
- The wider the news becomes, the more likely it is to be pessimistic. That is because bad news gets more attention than good news, because pessimism is seductive and feels more urgent than optimism. And the odds of a bad news story - a fraud, a corruption, a disaster - occurring in your local town at any given moment are low. When you expand your attention nationally, the odds increase. When they expand globally, the odds of something terrible happening in any given moment are 100 percent.
- Not the best idea, or the right idea, or the most rational idea. Just whoever tells a story that catches people's attention and gets them to nod their heads is the one who tends to be rewarded.
- There is too much information in the world for everyone to calmly sift through the data, looking for the most rational, most correct answer. People are busy and emotional, and a good story is always more powerful and persuasive than ice-cold statistics. If you have the right answer, you may or may not get ahead. If you have the wrong answer but you're a good storyteller, you'll probably get ahead. That's always been true, always will be true, and it shows up in so many areas of history.
- When a topic is complex, stories are like leverage.
- The most persuasive stories are about what you want to believe is true, or are an extension of what you've experienced firsthand.
- Historian Will Durant once said, "Logic is an invention of man and may be ignored by the universe." And it often is, which can drive you mad if you expect the world to work in rational ways.
- Things can become the most dangerous when people perceive them to be the safest.
- A constant truth you see throughout history is that the biggest changes and the most important innovations don't happen when everyone is happy and things are going well. They tend to occur during and after a terrible event. When people are a little panicked, shocked, worried, and when the consequences of not acting quickly are too painful to bear.
- An important fact that explains a lot of things is that good news takes time, but bad news tends to occur instantly.
- Big, fast changes happen only when they're foced by necessity.
- To enjoy peace, we need almost everyone to make good choices. By contrast, a poor choice by just one side can lead to war. - Yuval Noah Harari
- It's good to always assume the world will break about once per decade, because historically it has. The brakes feel like low-probability events, so it's common to think they won't keep happening. But they do, again and again, because they're actually just smaller high-probability events compounding off one another.
- Once you accept a certain level of inefficiency, you stop denying its existence and have a clearer view of how the world works.
- Evolution is ruthless and unforgiving - it doesn't teach by showing you what works but by destroying what doesn't.
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